the optimists are right
from the new york times archives comes this wonderful article which describes why the most consistent aspects of humanity are as follows:
1. Humanity's condition will improve in just about every material way.
2. Humans will continue to sit around complaining about everything getting worse.
The Optimists Are Right
By JOHN TIERNEY
Published: September 29, 1996
The future used to be so much simpler. A century ago, prophets had no trouble knowing what life today would be like. The Popular Science Monthly already realized in 1895 that the 20th century would be the Trolley Age. In Looking Backward, the best seller that fomented a national political movement in the 1890s, Edward Bellamy foresaw that the Socialist government of the year 2000 would give each citizen an annual credit card -- and that the allotted sum would be so generous that the happy citizen wouldnt even want to spend it all. The house of 2000, according to H.G. Wells, would have self-cleaning windows, and the floor would be easy to sweep because the architect would have the sense and ability to round off the angle between wall and floor. Wells' most audacious prophecy was about prophecy itself -- what he called the discovery of the future. Soon, he announced in 1902, experts will make forecasts that will be just as certain, just as strictly science, and perhaps just as detailed as the picture that has been built up within the last 100 years to make the geological past. Today his smug confidence sounds preposterous, but in fact Wells was quite prescient. The future has been discovered. Most people still don't realize it, but we can scientifically predict what will happen in the next 100 years.
1 comment:
Why I should've put my pessimistic money down on Iraq, Afghanistan, Sudan, The Congo, Somalia: "If you doubt his forecast, Simon will be glad to make a bet. He and a consortium of fellow optimists have $100,000 available to wager all comers, with a limit of $10,000 for any single bet. A neutral party will hold both sides' money in escrow. You can name the sum and pick any year after 2000. Simon will bet you that the average person in any country that year, compared with today, will live longer, be better nourished and educated, have a bigger home, make more money and enjoy more free time in a world that's safer, cleaner and blessed with cheaper energy and natural resources."
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